England: EFL CupSaturday 08 Aug, 13:00 UTC

Queens Park Rangers vMillwall

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.67 goals expected
Queens Park Rangers 47%Draw 31%Millwall 23%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
74%

Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 74% probability because QPR's 0.54 expected-goals edge and combined 2.67 xG total point to a genuinely open match that rarely stays below two goals.

How we get there
Queens Park RangersstepMillwall
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.13
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.60Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.06
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Millwall or draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

QPR average 5.4 corners per game at home this season (24 competitive matches). Millwall average 5.1 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

QPR vs Millwall — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between QPR and Millwall — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: QPR 47% · draw 31% · Millwall 23%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Queens Park Rangers 11 Millwall
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.