FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Racing Santander 2–1 AlavésMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Racing Santander or draw at 68%. Bawler had Racing Santander at 41%, the draw at 27% and Alavés at 32%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Racing Santander win
41%
Result
Draw
27%
Alavés win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% as both sides combine for just 2.70 xG in a fixture where Racing's home advantage (41% win odds) keeps this genuinely competitive despite Alavés's league position."