FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Racing Santander 2–2 VillarrealMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Racing Santander or draw at 74%. Bawler had Racing Santander at 42%, the draw at 32% and Villarreal at 26%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Racing Santander win
42%
Draw
32%
Result
Villarreal win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Medium confidence
Racing Santander to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Villarreal or draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Villarreal's title ambitions demand caution on foreign soil against a home side generating superior xG (1.49 vs 1.13), making Over 1.5 Goals the high-confidence call at 70%."