Spain: La LigaSunday 16 Aug, 15:00 UTC

Racing Santander vVillarreal

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.62 goals expected
Racing Santander 42%Draw 32%Villarreal 26%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
70%

Villarreal's title ambitions demand caution on foreign soil against a home side generating superior xG (1.49 vs 1.13), making Over 1.5 Goals the high-confidence call at 70%.

End-of-season stakes
Racing Santander — no late-season stakes
Away
Villarreal
Title race — 3rd
18 pts off top · 8 left
Goals forecast adjusted +4.5% for what's at stake
How we get there
Racing SantanderstepVillarreal
1.32Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.13
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Racing Santander to win
52%
Villarreal or draw
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Villarreal average 2.9 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Racing Santander vs Villarreal — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Racing Santander and Villarreal — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Racing Santander 42% · draw 32% · Villarreal 26%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.