FT · Spain: La Liga · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Rayo Vallecano 2–1 EspanyolMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Rayo Vallecano or draw at 79%. Bawler had Rayo Vallecano at 54%, the draw at 25% and Espanyol at 21%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rayo Vallecano win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
Espanyol win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Rayo Vallecano or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Rayo's dominant 0.75 expected-goals advantage at home makes Rayo Vallecano or draw—a Vallecano win or draw—the model's 79% forecast, reflecting their superior shot quality over a toothless Espanyol attack."