FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Rayo Vallecano 3–2 Racing SantanderMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Rayo Vallecano or draw at 79%. Bawler had Rayo Vallecano at 54%, the draw at 25% and Racing Santander at 21%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rayo Vallecano win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
Racing Santander win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Rayo Vallecano or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Rayo Vallecano's 0.75 expected-goals advantage at home makes them heavy favourites, but Racing Santander's defensive structure keeps the draw plausible enough that Rayo Vallecano or draw carries a 79% forecast."