How it finished
Rayo Vallecano beat Racing Santander 3–2. Bawler's model had Rayo Vallecano in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Rayo Vallecano had 16 shots (10 on target) to Racing Santander's 9 (4), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Rayo Vallecano beat Racing Santander 3–2. Bawler's model had Rayo Vallecano in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Rayo Vallecano had 16 shots (10 on target) to Racing Santander's 9 (4), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.5.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Rayo Vallecano 3–2 Racing Santander, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Rayo Vallecano 54%, the draw 25% and Racing Santander 21%.
What were the stats in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–0.5, Shots 16–9, Shots on target 10–4, Shots inside box 9–4, Big chances 1–1, Corners 9–6, Saves 2–6, Fouls 15–12, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 3–2, Red cards 2–0.
Did both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Yes — both Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander scored, finishing 3–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Rayo Vallecano or draw 79%, it finished Rayo Vallecano won (54% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished Yes.