FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburg SVMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was RB Leipzig to win at 63%. Bawler had RB Leipzig at 63%, the draw at 20% and Hamburg SV at 17%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
RB Leipzig win
63%
Result
Draw
20%
Hamburg SV win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.2
Total 3.5
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
RB Leipzig to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Leipzig's dominance in expected goals—generating 2.32 to Hamburg's 1.16—underpins the model's Home Win forecast at 63% probability."