FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Reading 1–2 BrentfordMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brentford or draw at 79%. Bawler had Reading at 21%, the draw at 23% and Brentford at 55%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Reading win
21%
Draw
23%
Brentford win
55%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 3.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81% because Brentford's 1.93 xG—nearly 0.8 clear of Reading's 1.13—signals a decisive attacking edge anchored by striker Igor Thiago's 34% of team shot quality."