FT · Spain: La Liga · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Real Betis 1–0 GetafeMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Betis or draw at 81%. Bawler had Real Betis at 54%, the draw at 27% and Getafe at 19%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Betis win
54%
Result
Draw
27%
Getafe win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 0.8
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Real Betis or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Betis' 0.74 expected-goals advantage and Isco's creative influence underpin an 81% forecast for Real Betis or draw, as the hosts' superior shot quality should prevent a Getafe upset at home."