FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Friday, 21 August 2026
Real Betis 1–0 Real SociedadMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 21 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Betis or draw at 78%. Bawler had Real Betis at 53%, the draw at 24% and Real Sociedad at 22%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Betis win
53%
Result
Draw
24%
Real Sociedad win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
Real Betis to win
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.