FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid to win at 62%. Bawler had Real Madrid at 62%, the draw at 21% and Rayo Vallecano at 17%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Madrid win
62%
Result
Draw
21%
Rayo Vallecano win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.0
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Real Madrid to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Real Madrid's home win is the high-confidence call at 62%, backed by a 1.10 xG advantage and Vinícius Júnior's wing creativity accounting for a quarter of their attacking threat."