How it finished
Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1. Bawler's model had Real Madrid in front at 62% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 5. Real Madrid had 24 shots (11 on target) to Rayo Vallecano's 18 (7), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 2.7 to 1.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1. Bawler's model had Real Madrid in front at 62% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 5. Real Madrid had 24 shots (11 on target) to Rayo Vallecano's 18 (7), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 2.7 to 1.1.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Real Madrid 62%, the draw 21% and Rayo Vallecano 17%.
What were the stats in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Full-time: Possession 56%–44%, Expected goals (xG) 2.7–1.1, Shots 24–18, Shots on target 11–7, Shots inside box 16–8, Big chances 4–2, Corners 11–5, Saves 6–7, Fouls 9–13, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Yes — both Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Real Madrid to win 62%, it finished Real Madrid won (62% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes.