FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Real Salt Lake 3–4 FC DallasMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Real Salt Lake or draw at 67%. Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 41%, the draw at 26% and FC Dallas at 33%. The match finished 3–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Salt Lake win
41%
Draw
26%
FC Dallas win
33%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+4.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 4.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.