FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Real Salt Lake 2–2 LAFCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was LAFC or draw at 68%. Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 32%, the draw at 26% and LAFC at 42%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Salt Lake win
32%
Draw
26%
Result
LAFC win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 79%, driven by LAFC's 1.58 xG advantage and a combined 2.94 expected goals that point to an open, attacking fixture."