FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Real Salt Lake 1–1 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Salt Lake or draw at 74%. Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 44%, the draw at 30% and Minnesota United FC at 26%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Salt Lake win
44%
Draw
30%
Result
Minnesota United FC win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.