FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Real Sociedad 0–3 Atlético MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Real Sociedad or draw at 64%. Bawler had Real Sociedad at 40%, the draw at 25% and Atlético Madrid at 36%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Sociedad win
40%
Draw
25%
Atlético Madrid win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 83% as both sides combine for 3.18 expected goals, with Real Sociedad's Oyarzabal and Atlético's Griezmann driving attacking value in a fixture separated by less than 0.30 xG."