FT · Spain: La Liga · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Real Sociedad 0–0 Celta VigoMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Sociedad or draw at 69%. Bawler had Real Sociedad at 44%, the draw at 26% and Celta Vigo at 31%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Sociedad win
44%
Draw
26%
Result
Celta Vigo win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Real Sociedad defend a precarious three-point European margin at home while Celta hold their sixth-place spot, yet Oyarzabal's creative influence (24% of team xG) and Sociedad's 0.31 xG advantage suggest Over 1.5 Goals at 80% remains the model's highest-conviction call."