FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Rio Ave 0–2 FC PortoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Porto or draw at 69%. Bawler had Rio Ave at 31%, the draw at 33% and FC Porto at 35%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rio Ave win
31%
Draw
33%
FC Porto win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
FC Porto to win
Pre-match: 29%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.