FT · World: International Friendly · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Russia 2–0 IranMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Russia
2–0
Russia win
Iran

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Russia or draw at 73%. Bawler had Russia at 47%, the draw at 26% and Iran at 27%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Russia win
47%
Result
Draw
26%
Iran win
27%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is a 77% forecast here, underpinned by Russia's 0.45 xG advantage and Taremi's 24% of Iran's shot creation threatening to spark a multi-goal affair."

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