FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Samsunspor 1–5 Çorum FKMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Samsunspor or draw at 80%. Bawler had Samsunspor at 56%, the draw at 24% and Çorum FK at 20%. The match finished 1–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Samsunspor win
56%
Draw
24%
Çorum FK win
20%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Samsunspor or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Samsunspor's 0.82 expected-goals advantage underpins the Samsunspor or draw forecast, with the hosts generating 1.86 xG to Çorum's 1.04 in a matchup where home unbeaten is the model's 80% high-confidence call."