FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Monday, 17 August 2026
Samsunspor 3–3 GoztepeMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 17 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Samsunspor or draw at 81%. Bawler had Samsunspor at 50%, the draw at 31% and Goztepe at 19%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Samsunspor win
50%
Draw
31%
Result
Goztepe win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 0.9
Total 2.5
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 3.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Samsunspor or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Goztepe or draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.