Samsunspor vs Goztepe prediction — Süper Lig · Mon 17 Aug · 19:30 UK

Süper Lig · Mon 17 Aug · 19:30 UK
Samsunspor 50Draw 31Goztepe 19
Our call before kickoff
81%
Samsunspor or draw
Landed
2.5
Goals expected
Full time
Final 3–3
Both teams score (before kick-off)
48%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
46%

How it finished

Samsunspor and Goztepe drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Samsunspor at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 31%. It forecast 2.5 goals; the match produced 6. Samsunspor had 21 shots (3 on target) to Goztepe's 20 (7), with 69% of the ball against 31%. Expected goals finished 2.7 to 1.9.

SamsunsporFull-time statsGoztepe
69%Possession31%
2.7Expected goals (xG)1.9
21Shots20
3Shots on target7
14Shots inside box14
3Big chances3
4Corners8
4Saves0
8Fouls13
1Offsides1
1Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callSamsunspor or draw 81%Draw (31% called)
Total goals2.56
Both teams to score48%Yes
Graded pick (as published before kickoff)Samsunspor or draw 76%Landed
Second pickUnder 2.5 goals 54%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

SamsunsporGoztepe
1.6
Goals+0.7
0.9

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Samsunspor to score80%
Under 3.5 goals75%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Goztepe to score60%

No first-half forecast for this fixture.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.7 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Samsunspor 2 · Draws 1 · Goztepe 2
Goztepe in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

May 2026Samsunspor 3–0 Göztepe
Dec 2025Göztepe 2–0 Samsunspor
Mar 2025Göztepe 2–2 Samsunspor
Sept 2024Samsunspor 4–3 Göztepe
Apr 2023Göztepe 1–0 Samsunspor
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Samsunspor vs Goztepe?

Samsunspor and Goztepe drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Samsunspor at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 31%. It forecast 2.5 goals; the match produced 6. Samsunspor had 21 shots (3 on target) to Goztepe's 20 (7), with 69% of the ball against 31%. Expected goals finished 2.7 to 1.9.

What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Goztepe?

Samsunspor 3–3 Goztepe, played on 17 Aug 2026 in the TURKEY: Super Lig. Bawler's model had gone into it with Samsunspor 50%, the draw 31% and Goztepe 19%.

What were the stats in Samsunspor vs Goztepe?

Full-time: Possession 69%–31%, Expected goals (xG) 2.7–1.9, Shots 21–20, Shots on target 3–7, Shots inside box 14–14, Big chances 3–3, Corners 4–8, Saves 4–0, Fouls 8–13, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 1–3.

Did both teams score in Samsunspor vs Goztepe?

Yes — both Samsunspor and Goztepe scored, finishing 3–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Samsunspor vs Goztepe right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Samsunspor or draw 81%, it finished Draw (31% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished Yes; Graded pick (as published before kickoff) — we said Samsunspor or draw 76%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Under 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

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