FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
San Diego FC 3–1 LA GalaxyMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was San Diego FC or draw at 77%. Bawler had San Diego FC at 54%, the draw at 23% and LA Galaxy at 23%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Diego FC win
54%
Result
Draw
23%
LA Galaxy win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.3
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
San Diego FC to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"San Diego's dominant 0.74 expected-goals edge and 54% win probability forecast Over 1.5 Goals at 84%, with the hosts creating significantly more clear chances than Riqui Puig's Galaxy can generate."