FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was San Jose Earthquakes or draw at 74%. Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 50%, the draw at 24% and Houston Dynamo FC at 26%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Jose Earthquakes win
50%
Result
Draw
24%
Houston Dynamo FC win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Missed
Medium confidence
San Jose Earthquakes or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals arrives at 83% confidence as San Jose's 1.88 expected goals—a 0.56 edge over Houston—projects a high-volume attacking night at home."