FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 LAFCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was San Jose Earthquakes or draw at 62%. Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 38%, the draw at 24% and LAFC at 38%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Jose Earthquakes win
38%
Draw
24%
Result
LAFC win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 84% because San Jose and LAFC's combined expected goals of 3.30 suggest an open, attacking fixture with both sides generating comparable chances."