FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Santa Clara 4–0 Rio AveMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Santa Clara or draw at 80%. Bawler had Santa Clara at 53%, the draw at 27% and Rio Ave at 20%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Santa Clara win
53%
Result
Draw
27%
Rio Ave win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 0.9
Total 2.4
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Santa Clara or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Santa Clara's 0.70 expected-goals advantage and 53% win probability support the Santa Clara or draw forecast at 80% confidence, reflecting their dominant shot quality in a low-scoring matchup."