FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Sassuolo 2–1 TorinoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sassuolo or draw at 68%. Bawler had Sassuolo at 42%, the draw at 27% and Torino at 32%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sassuolo win
42%
Result
Draw
27%
Torino win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sassuolo's home-field setup projects a narrow xG edge (1.51 vs 1.30) that favors a low-scoring but open contest, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 77% call."