FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC FreiburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SC Freiburg or draw at 69%. Bawler had SC Paderborn 07 at 31%, the draw at 25% and SC Freiburg at 43%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Paderborn 07 win
31%
Draw
25%
SC Freiburg win
43%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Freiburg's pursuit of European qualification (8th, 6 games left) gives them attacking intent that, combined with their 0.32 xG edge and Vincenzo Grifo's creative threat on the wing, makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 81% forecast."