FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
SC Paderborn 07 3–1 TSG HoffenheimMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was TSG Hoffenheim or draw at 64%. Bawler had SC Paderborn 07 at 36%, the draw at 25% and TSG Hoffenheim at 39%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Paderborn 07 win
36%
Result
Draw
25%
TSG Hoffenheim win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Hoffenheim's 0.35 expected-goals advantage and 45% win probability make Over 1.5 Goals the model's high-confidence call at 82%, as both sides are positioned to generate consistent attacking chances."