FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Schalke 04 0–0 Bayern MunichMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bayern Munich to win at 73%. Bawler had Schalke 04 at 12%, the draw at 15% and Bayern Munich at 73%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Schalke 04 win
12%
Draw
15%
Result
Bayern Munich win
73%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 2.9
Total 4.0
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−4.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 4.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayern Munich to win
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bayern Munich's 3.02 expected goals versus Schalke's 1.12—a 1.90 xG advantage—underpins the model's high-confidence Away Win forecast at 75%."