FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Scotland 1–2 SloveniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Scotland
1–2
Slovenia win
Slovenia

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Scotland to win at 61%. Bawler had Scotland at 61%, the draw at 25% and Slovenia at 14%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Scotland win
61%
Draw
25%
Slovenia win
14%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 0.7
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.4.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Scotland to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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