How it finished
Slovenia beat Scotland 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Scotland at 61% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Slovenia 14%. It forecast 2.4 goals and the match produced 3. Scotland had 12 shots (6 on target) to Slovenia's 10 (3), with 54% of the ball against 46%. On expected goals it was 2.2 to 1.3, so Scotland created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Scotland vs Slovenia?
Slovenia beat Scotland 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Scotland at 61% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Slovenia 14%. It forecast 2.4 goals and the match produced 3. Scotland had 12 shots (6 on target) to Slovenia's 10 (3), with 54% of the ball against 46%. On expected goals it was 2.2 to 1.3, so Scotland created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Scotland vs Slovenia?
Scotland 1–2 Slovenia, played on 06 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Scotland 61%, the draw 25% and Slovenia 14%.
What were the stats in Scotland vs Slovenia?
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 2.2–1.3, Shots 12–10, Shots on target 6–3, Shots inside box 8–6, Big chances 2–4, Corners 1–4, Saves 0–4, Fouls 11–16, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 2–4.
Did both teams score in Scotland vs Slovenia?
Yes — both Scotland and Slovenia scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 41% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Scotland vs Slovenia right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Scotland to win 61%, it finished Slovenia won (14% called); Total goals — we said 2.4, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 41%, it finished Yes.