FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Scotland 0–3 SwitzerlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Scotland
0–3
Switzerland win
Switzerland

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Switzerland or draw at 77%. Bawler had Scotland at 23%, the draw at 26% and Switzerland at 51%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Scotland win
23%
Draw
26%
Switzerland win
51%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 1.7
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.1 – 1.6
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Switzerland or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Switzerland's superior chance creation—0.62 xG ahead with Embolo and Xhaka driving attack—underpins the Switzerland or draw forecast at 77%, reflecting their 51% win probability at Hampden."

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