FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 24 September 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 2–0 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Seattle Sounders FC or draw at 75%. Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 51%, the draw at 24% and Real Salt Lake at 25%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Seattle Sounders FC win
51%
Result
Draw
24%
Real Salt Lake win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Seattle Sounders FC to win
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast here, driven by Seattle's 0.60 xG advantage and Jordan Morris's wing threat generating nearly a quarter of the team's chances in a fixture expected to produce 3.1 total xG."