FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 17 August 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 0–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 17 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Vancouver Whitecaps or draw at 73%. Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 27%, the draw at 30% and Vancouver Whitecaps at 42%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Seattle Sounders FC win
27%
Draw
30%
Vancouver Whitecaps win
42%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 76%, as Vancouver's 1.59 xG and Jordan Morris's creation threat from the wing set up a low-scoring but goal-heavy script."