USA: MLSMonday 17 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders FC vVancouver Whitecaps

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.84 goals expected
Seattle Sounders FC 27%Draw 30%Vancouver Whitecaps 42%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
76%

Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 76%, as Vancouver's 1.59 xG and Jordan Morris's creation threat from the wing set up a low-scoring but goal-heavy script.

How we get there
Seattle Sounders FCstepVancouver Whitecaps
1.11Base xG · rolling 26-match1.69
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.25Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.59
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Seattle Sounders average 4.8 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Vancouver Whitecaps average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (29 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
9
7
4
2
1
7
12
9
5
2
1
2
5
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 19 March 2026, Seattle Sounders have won 1, Vancouver Whitecaps have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
19 March 2026Seattle Sounders 21 Vancouver WhitecapsNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA: CONCACAF Champions Cup

The model's verdict for this fixture: Seattle Sounders 27% · draw 30% · Vancouver Whitecaps 42%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.