FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Serbia 1–2 NetherlandsMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Serbia
1–2
Netherlands win
Netherlands

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Netherlands to win at 85%. Bawler had Serbia at 4%, the draw at 11% and Netherlands at 85%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Serbia win
4%
Draw
11%
Netherlands win
85%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.5 – 2.9
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 2.8
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Netherlands to win
Pre-match: 85%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Netherlands Away Win is the high-confidence call, backed by a dominant 2.33 xG advantage and 84% win probability that reflects their attacking threat through Gakpo and Depay."

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