FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Sevilla 2–1 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sevilla or draw at 76%. Bawler had Sevilla at 44%, the draw at 32% and Rayo Vallecano at 24%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sevilla win
44%
Result
Draw
32%
Rayo Vallecano win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.