FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
SK Sturm Graz 0–0 Stade RennaisMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Stade Rennais or draw at 74%. Bawler had SK Sturm Graz at 26%, the draw at 25% and Stade Rennais at 48%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
SK Sturm Graz win
26%
Draw
25%
Result
Stade Rennais win
48%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Stade Rennais or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% confidence as Rennais's 0.54 xG edge and 49% win probability suggest attacking intent will breach Sturm's defense at least twice."