FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Slovenia 0–0 ScotlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Scotland or draw at 82%. Bawler had Slovenia at 18%, the draw at 25% and Scotland at 57%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Slovenia win
18%
Draw
25%
Result
Scotland win
57%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.9 – 1.8
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.9
From the match itself

The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Scotland or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Scotland's creative duo of Robertson and McGinn should exploit a 0.82 expected-goals advantage that makes Scotland or draw (draw or away win) an 80% forecast in this Nations League clash."

More from Bawler