Slovenia vs Scotland prediction — UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 14:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 14:00 UK
Slovenia 18Draw 25Scotland 57
Our call before kickoff
82%
Scotland or draw
Landed
2.7
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
69%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
49%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
50%

How it finished

Slovenia and Scotland drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Scotland at 57% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.7 goals; nobody scored. Slovenia had 4 shots (1 on target) to Scotland's 17 (5), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.9.

SloveniaFull-time statsScotland
35%Possession65%
0.5Expected goals (xG)1.9
4Shots17
1Shots on target5
4Shots inside box14
1Big chances2
5Corners4
5Saves1
15Fouls18
2Offsides1
3Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callScotland or draw 82%Draw (25% called)
Total goals2.70
Both teams to score49%No

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

SloveniaScotland
0.9
Goals+0.9
1.8
SloveniaScotland
0.3
Goals+0.2
0.5
SloveniaScotland
0.6
Goals+0.6
1.2

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first.

MarketProbability
Scotland to score83%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Under 3.5 goals72%

First half — what we expected

Slovenia
33%
to score before half-time
Scotland
54%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.9 / match
Head-to-head, last 4Slovenia 0 · Draws 3 · Scotland 1

Head to head

Sept 2026Slovenia 0–0 Scotland
Oct 2017Slovenia 2–2 Scotland
Mar 2017Scotland 1–0 Slovenia
Feb 2012Slovenia 1–1 Scotland
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Slovenia vs Scotland?

Slovenia and Scotland drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Scotland at 57% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.7 goals; nobody scored. Slovenia had 4 shots (1 on target) to Scotland's 17 (5), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.9.

What was the final score in Slovenia vs Scotland?

Slovenia 0–0 Scotland, played on 26 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Slovenia 18%, the draw 25% and Scotland 57%.

What were the stats in Slovenia vs Scotland?

Full-time: Possession 35%–65%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.9, Shots 4–17, Shots on target 1–5, Shots inside box 4–14, Big chances 1–2, Corners 5–4, Saves 5–1, Fouls 15–18, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 3–1.

Did both teams score in Slovenia vs Scotland?

No. It finished 0–0, so Slovenia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 49% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Slovenia vs Scotland right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Scotland or draw 82%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 49%, it finished No.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Slovenia form →Scotland form →