South Africa vSouth Korea
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 70% — South Korea's 1.77 xG and 0.87 edge in shot quality versus South Africa's 0.90 forecasts a high-variance, open match where Son Heung-min's 28% of attacking load torments a home defence facing nearly double the visitors' expected output.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
South Africa average 2.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). South Korea average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
South Africa vs South Korea — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between South Africa and South Korea — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: South Africa 17% · draw 29% · South Korea 55%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.