FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 24 September 2026

South Korea 3–0 EcuadorMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

South Korea
3–0
South Korea win
Ecuador

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Ecuador or draw at 72%. Bawler had South Korea at 28%, the draw at 31% and Ecuador at 41%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

South Korea win
28%
Result
Draw
31%
Ecuador win
41%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 1.2
Total 2.2
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Ecuador or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 17%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Ecuador's 1.21 xG edge and 41% win probability make the Draw or Ecuador (Ecuador or draw) forecast the model's high-confidence call at 72%."

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