FT · World: International Friendly · Monday, 28 September 2026

South Korea 1–4 UruguayMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

South Korea
1–4
Uruguay win
Uruguay

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was South Korea or draw at 76%. Bawler had South Korea at 48%, the draw at 28% and Uruguay at 24%. The match finished 1–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

South Korea win
48%
Draw
28%
Uruguay win
24%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.0
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 2.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
South Korea or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"South Korea's 0.49 expected-goals advantage and 48% win probability support the South Korea or draw forecast at 76%, with Son Heung-min's creation of 28% of team chances positioning the hosts to avoid defeat."

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