FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 02 October 2026

South Korea 0–0 VenezuelaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was South Korea or draw at 79%. Bawler had South Korea at 54%, the draw at 25% and Venezuela at 21%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

South Korea win
54%
Draw
25%
Result
Venezuela win
21%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 2.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
South Korea or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 83% confidence because South Korea's 2.11 xG advantage and Son Heung-min's creation threat overwhelm Venezuela's 1.12 expected output."

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