FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Southampton 4–1 Bristol CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Southampton to win at 60%. Bawler had Southampton at 60%, the draw at 22% and Bristol City at 18%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Southampton win
60%
Result
Draw
22%
Bristol City win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.0
Total 3.0
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Southampton or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Southampton's 1.00 expected-goals advantage and 60% win probability point to a dominant home performance, making the Southampton or draw forecast (82% confidence) the model's call."