Spain vBelgium
Spain's 1X at 80% is the move—their 53% win probability plus 26% draw rate neutralizes Belgium's narrow 0.27 xG deficit (1.55 vs 1.28).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Spain average 6.7 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Belgium average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Spain vs Belgium — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Spain and Belgium — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Spain 53% · draw 26% · Belgium 21%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.