Europe: Champions League - QualificationTuesday 04 Aug, 18:00 UTC

Sparta Prague vLyon

Most likely scoreline
1–0
22% of the time · 1.76 goals expected
Sparta Prague 51%Draw 36%Lyon 13%
Strongest call
Under 2.5 goals
77%

Under 2.5 Goals is the lay-up here—Sparta's 1.25 xG dominance over Lyon's 0.51 points to a low-scoring affair, with total expected output of just 1.76.

How we get there
Sparta PraguestepLyon
1.11Base xG · rolling 26-match0.54
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.25Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.51
Most likely outcomes
Under 2.5 goals
77%
Lyon or draw
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Sparta Prague average 6.6 corners per game at home this season (7 competitive matches). Lyon average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
17
9
2
1
22
11
3
2
13
7
2
3
6
3
1
4
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Sparta Prague fixtures & form →Lyon fixtures & form →

Sparta Prague vs Lyon — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Sparta Prague and Lyon — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Sparta Prague 51% · draw 36% · Lyon 13%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Sparta Prague predictions & form →Lyon predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sparta Prague 2–1 Lyon
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.