FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 04 September 2026
Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 PEC ZwolleMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sparta Rotterdam or draw at 75%. Bawler had Sparta Rotterdam at 51%, the draw at 24% and PEC Zwolle at 25%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sparta Rotterdam win
51%
Draw
24%
Result
PEC Zwolle win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Sparta Rotterdam to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sparta Rotterdam's 0.60 expected-goal advantage and 51% win probability underpin an 81% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, suggesting both sides will find the net in a match shaped by the hosts' attacking edge."